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Effects of Federal Loans on First-Year College Student Retention, Transfer, and Dropout

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Title: Effects of Federal Loans on First-Year College Student Retention, Transfer, and Dropout
Language: English
Authors: Rong Chen (ORCID 0009-0003-5816-8930), Katie N. Smith
Source: Journal of College Student Retention: Research, Theory & Practice. 2026 28(1):245-273.
Availability: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
Peer Reviewed: Y
Page Count: 29
Publication Date: 2026
Document Type: Journal Articles
Reports - Research
Education Level: Higher Education
Postsecondary Education
Descriptors: Student Financial Aid, Federal Aid, College Freshmen, School Holding Power, College Transfer Students, Dropouts, Student Loan Programs, African American Students, Academic Persistence, Family Income, Racial Differences
Assessment and Survey Identifiers: Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study
DOI: 10.1177/15210251241252927
ISSN: 1521-0251
1541-4167
Abstract: This study utilizes marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMW-S) to analyze data from the Beginning Postsecondary Students 2012-2014 (BPS:12/14) survey. Specifically, this study estimates the effects of federal loan levels on first-year college students' decisions to persist by staying at their first institution or by transferring to another institution, or to drop out of the higher education system. Results indicate non-linear and heterogeneous effects of federal student loans. Compared with zero loans, having a low level of federal student loans is positively related to transferring to other institutions. Compared with zero loans, having a moderate level of loans is negatively associated with system dropout. Through interaction effect tests, we find some variation in these effects between students by race/ethnicity, with federal loans uniquely and adversely affecting Black student persistence.
Abstractor: As Provided
Entry Date: 2026
Accession Number: EJ1501376
Database: ERIC
FullText Text:
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  Data: Effects of Federal Loans on First-Year College Student Retention, Transfer, and Dropout
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Rong+Chen%22">Rong Chen</searchLink> (ORCID <externalLink term="https://orcid.org/0009-0003-5816-8930">0009-0003-5816-8930</externalLink>)<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Katie+N%2E+Smith%22">Katie N. Smith</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="SO" term="%22Journal+of+College+Student+Retention%3A+Research%2C+Theory+%26+Practice%22"><i>Journal of College Student Retention: Research, Theory & Practice</i></searchLink>. 2026 28(1):245-273.
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  Data: SAGE Publications. 2455 Teller Road, Thousand Oaks, CA 91320. Tel: 800-818-7243; Tel: 805-499-9774; Fax: 800-583-2665; e-mail: journals@sagepub.com; Web site: https://sagepub.com
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  Data: 29
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Higher+Education%22">Higher Education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="EL" term="%22Postsecondary+Education%22">Postsecondary Education</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Student+Financial+Aid%22">Student Financial Aid</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Federal+Aid%22">Federal Aid</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22College+Freshmen%22">College Freshmen</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22School+Holding+Power%22">School Holding Power</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22College+Transfer+Students%22">College Transfer Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Dropouts%22">Dropouts</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Student+Loan+Programs%22">Student Loan Programs</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22African+American+Students%22">African American Students</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Academic+Persistence%22">Academic Persistence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Family+Income%22">Family Income</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Racial+Differences%22">Racial Differences</searchLink>
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  Data: 10.1177/15210251241252927
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  Label: Abstract
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  Data: This study utilizes marginal mean weighting through stratification (MMW-S) to analyze data from the Beginning Postsecondary Students 2012-2014 (BPS:12/14) survey. Specifically, this study estimates the effects of federal loan levels on first-year college students' decisions to persist by staying at their first institution or by transferring to another institution, or to drop out of the higher education system. Results indicate non-linear and heterogeneous effects of federal student loans. Compared with zero loans, having a low level of federal student loans is positively related to transferring to other institutions. Compared with zero loans, having a moderate level of loans is negatively associated with system dropout. Through interaction effect tests, we find some variation in these effects between students by race/ethnicity, with federal loans uniquely and adversely affecting Black student persistence.
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  Data: 2026
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        Value: 10.1177/15210251241252927
    Languages:
      – Text: English
    PhysicalDescription:
      Pagination:
        PageCount: 29
        StartPage: 245
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Student Financial Aid
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Federal Aid
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: College Freshmen
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: School Holding Power
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: College Transfer Students
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Dropouts
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Student Loan Programs
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: African American Students
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Academic Persistence
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Family Income
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Racial Differences
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study
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      – TitleFull: Effects of Federal Loans on First-Year College Student Retention, Transfer, and Dropout
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              Y: 2026
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            – TitleFull: Journal of College Student Retention: Research, Theory & Practice
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