Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria.

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Title: Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria.
Authors: Nightingale ES; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Pham-Minh L; Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Bello IM; Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Okrior S; The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America., Erbeto TB; World Health Organization, Country Office, Abuja, Nigeria., Baba M; National Polio Laboratory, Maiduguri, Nigeria., Adeneji A; National Polio Laboratory, Ibadan, Nigeria., Auzenbergs M; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Edmunds WJ; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., O'Reilly KM; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Source: PLoS computational biology [PLoS Comput Biol] 2026 Mar 16; Vol. 22 (3), pp. e1013984. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Mar 16 (Print Publication: 2026).
Publication Type: Journal Article; Validation Study
Journal Info: Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101238922 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1553-7358 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 1553734X NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS Comput Biol Subsets: MEDLINE
Database: MEDLINE Ultimate
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ISSN:1553-7358
DOI:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013984