Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria.

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Title: Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria.
Authors: Nightingale ES; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Pham-Minh L; Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Bello IM; Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland., Okrior S; The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America., Erbeto TB; World Health Organization, Country Office, Abuja, Nigeria., Baba M; National Polio Laboratory, Maiduguri, Nigeria., Adeneji A; National Polio Laboratory, Ibadan, Nigeria., Auzenbergs M; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., Edmunds WJ; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom., O'Reilly KM; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Source: PLoS computational biology [PLoS Comput Biol] 2026 Mar 16; Vol. 22 (3), pp. e1013984. Date of Electronic Publication: 2026 Mar 16 (Print Publication: 2026).
Publication Type: Journal Article; Validation Study
Journal Info: Publisher: Public Library of Science Country of Publication: United States NLM ID: 101238922 Publication Model: eCollection Cited Medium: Internet ISSN: 1553-7358 (Electronic) Linking ISSN: 1553734X NLM ISO Abbreviation: PLoS Comput Biol Subsets: MEDLINE
Database: MEDLINE Ultimate
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  Data: Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Nightingale+ES%22">Nightingale ES</searchLink>; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Pham-Minh+L%22">Pham-Minh L</searchLink>; Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Bello+IM%22">Bello IM</searchLink>; Polio Eradication Department, World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Okrior+S%22">Okrior S</searchLink>; The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Erbeto+TB%22">Erbeto TB</searchLink>; World Health Organization, Country Office, Abuja, Nigeria.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Baba+M%22">Baba M</searchLink>; National Polio Laboratory, Maiduguri, Nigeria.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Adeneji+A%22">Adeneji A</searchLink>; National Polio Laboratory, Ibadan, Nigeria.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Auzenbergs+M%22">Auzenbergs M</searchLink>; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22Edmunds+WJ%22">Edmunds WJ</searchLink>; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.<br /><searchLink fieldCode="AU" term="%22O'Reilly+KM%22">O'Reilly KM</searchLink>; Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.; Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22101238922%22">PLoS computational biology</searchLink> [PLoS Comput Biol] 2026 Mar 16; Vol. 22 (3), pp. e1013984. <i>Date of Electronic Publication: </i>2026 Mar 16 (<i>Print Publication: </i>2026).
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              Text: 2026 Mar 16
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