Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.
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| Title: | Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study. |
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| Authors: | Schnure, Melissa, Forster, Ryan, Jones, Joyce L., Lesko, Catherine R., Batey, D. Scott, Butler, Isolde, Ward, Dafina, Musgrove, Karen, Althoff, Keri N., Jain, Mamta K., Gebo, Kelly A., Dowdy, David W., Shah, Maunank, Kasaie, Parastu, Fojo, Anthony T. |
| Source: | American Journal of Public Health. May2026, Vol. 116 Issue 5, p732-735. 4p. |
| Subjects: | Government aid laws, HIV infection transmission, HIV infection epidemiology, Prevention of infectious disease transmission, HIV prevention, Health services accessibility, Patient compliance, Antiretroviral agents, Viral load, Research funding, United States. Dept. of Health & Human Services, HIV-positive persons, Outpatient medical care, HIV infections, Descriptive statistics, Population geography, Federal government, Simulation methods in education, Government programs, Research, Infectious disease transmission, Medicaid, Drugs, Forecasting, Disease incidence, Medical care costs |
| Geographic Terms: | Florida, New York (State), California, Illinois, Alabama, Wisconsin, Missouri, Mississippi, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, United States |
| Abstract: | Objectives. To estimate the increase in HIV infections in 11 US states if Ryan White services are interrupted or ended. Methods. We applied a population-level model of HIV transmission to 11 states. We represented the proportion of people with HIV receiving Ryan White AIDS drug assistance, outpatient health services, or support services, and simulated a loss of suppression in each category if services permanently end or return after delays of 1.5 or 3.5 years. Results. Cessation of Ryan White services in 2025 was projected to result in 69 695 additional infections from 2025 to 2030 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 18 943, 123 628), 68% more (95% CrI = 18%, 118%) than if Ryan White were continued. Temporary interruptions of 1.5 and 3.5 years resulted in 26 951 (95% CrI = 7341, 47 534) and 53 594 (95% CrI = 14 645, 94 860) additional infections, respectively. Excess infections varied across states, from a 45% increase in Texas to 126% in Missouri. Conclusions. Projected increases in HIV infections because of disruptions of Ryan White services threaten the progress made in curtailing the US HIV epidemic, illustrating the critical role Ryan White plays in preventing HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| Database: | Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection |
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| Abstract: | Objectives. To estimate the increase in HIV infections in 11 US states if Ryan White services are interrupted or ended. Methods. We applied a population-level model of HIV transmission to 11 states. We represented the proportion of people with HIV receiving Ryan White AIDS drug assistance, outpatient health services, or support services, and simulated a loss of suppression in each category if services permanently end or return after delays of 1.5 or 3.5 years. Results. Cessation of Ryan White services in 2025 was projected to result in 69 695 additional infections from 2025 to 2030 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 18 943, 123 628), 68% more (95% CrI = 18%, 118%) than if Ryan White were continued. Temporary interruptions of 1.5 and 3.5 years resulted in 26 951 (95% CrI = 7341, 47 534) and 53 594 (95% CrI = 14 645, 94 860) additional infections, respectively. Excess infections varied across states, from a 45% increase in Texas to 126% in Missouri. Conclusions. Projected increases in HIV infections because of disruptions of Ryan White services threaten the progress made in curtailing the US HIV epidemic, illustrating the critical role Ryan White plays in preventing HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR] |
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| ISSN: | 00900036 |
| DOI: | 10.2105/AJPH.2025.308409 |
