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Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.

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Title: Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.
Authors: Schnure, Melissa, Forster, Ryan, Jones, Joyce L., Lesko, Catherine R., Batey, D. Scott, Butler, Isolde, Ward, Dafina, Musgrove, Karen, Althoff, Keri N., Jain, Mamta K., Gebo, Kelly A., Dowdy, David W., Shah, Maunank, Kasaie, Parastu, Fojo, Anthony T.
Source: American Journal of Public Health. May2026, Vol. 116 Issue 5, p732-735. 4p.
Subjects: Government aid laws, HIV infection transmission, HIV infection epidemiology, Prevention of infectious disease transmission, HIV prevention, Health services accessibility, Patient compliance, Antiretroviral agents, Viral load, Research funding, United States. Dept. of Health & Human Services, HIV-positive persons, Outpatient medical care, HIV infections, Descriptive statistics, Population geography, Federal government, Simulation methods in education, Government programs, Research, Infectious disease transmission, Medicaid, Drugs, Forecasting, Disease incidence, Medical care costs
Geographic Terms: Florida, New York (State), California, Illinois, Alabama, Wisconsin, Missouri, Mississippi, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, United States
Abstract: Objectives. To estimate the increase in HIV infections in 11 US states if Ryan White services are interrupted or ended. Methods. We applied a population-level model of HIV transmission to 11 states. We represented the proportion of people with HIV receiving Ryan White AIDS drug assistance, outpatient health services, or support services, and simulated a loss of suppression in each category if services permanently end or return after delays of 1.5 or 3.5 years. Results. Cessation of Ryan White services in 2025 was projected to result in 69 695 additional infections from 2025 to 2030 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 18 943, 123 628), 68% more (95% CrI = 18%, 118%) than if Ryan White were continued. Temporary interruptions of 1.5 and 3.5 years resulted in 26 951 (95% CrI = 7341, 47 534) and 53 594 (95% CrI = 14 645, 94 860) additional infections, respectively. Excess infections varied across states, from a 45% increase in Texas to 126% in Missouri. Conclusions. Projected increases in HIV infections because of disruptions of Ryan White services threaten the progress made in curtailing the US HIV epidemic, illustrating the critical role Ryan White plays in preventing HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Copyright of American Journal of Public Health is the property of American Public Health Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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  Data: Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Schnure%2C+Melissa%22">Schnure, Melissa</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Forster%2C+Ryan%22">Forster, Ryan</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jones%2C+Joyce+L%2E%22">Jones, Joyce L.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Lesko%2C+Catherine+R%2E%22">Lesko, Catherine R.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Batey%2C+D%2E+Scott%22">Batey, D. Scott</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Butler%2C+Isolde%22">Butler, Isolde</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Ward%2C+Dafina%22">Ward, Dafina</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Musgrove%2C+Karen%22">Musgrove, Karen</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Althoff%2C+Keri+N%2E%22">Althoff, Keri N.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Jain%2C+Mamta+K%2E%22">Jain, Mamta K.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Gebo%2C+Kelly+A%2E%22">Gebo, Kelly A.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Dowdy%2C+David+W%2E%22">Dowdy, David W.</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Shah%2C+Maunank%22">Shah, Maunank</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Kasaie%2C+Parastu%22">Kasaie, Parastu</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="AR" term="%22Fojo%2C+Anthony+T%2E%22">Fojo, Anthony T.</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="JN" term="%22American+Journal+of+Public+Health%22">American Journal of Public Health</searchLink>. May2026, Vol. 116 Issue 5, p732-735. 4p.
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Government+aid+laws%22">Government aid laws</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HIV+infection+transmission%22">HIV infection transmission</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HIV+infection+epidemiology%22">HIV infection epidemiology</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Prevention+of+infectious+disease+transmission%22">Prevention of infectious disease transmission</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HIV+prevention%22">HIV prevention</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Health+services+accessibility%22">Health services accessibility</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Patient+compliance%22">Patient compliance</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Antiretroviral+agents%22">Antiretroviral agents</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Viral+load%22">Viral load</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research+funding%22">Research funding</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%2E+Dept%2E+of+Health+%26+Human+Services%22">United States. Dept. of Health & Human Services</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HIV-positive+persons%22">HIV-positive persons</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Outpatient+medical+care%22">Outpatient medical care</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22HIV+infections%22">HIV infections</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Descriptive+statistics%22">Descriptive statistics</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Population+geography%22">Population geography</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Federal+government%22">Federal government</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Simulation+methods+in+education%22">Simulation methods in education</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Government+programs%22">Government programs</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Research%22">Research</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Infectious+disease+transmission%22">Infectious disease transmission</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Medicaid%22">Medicaid</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Drugs%22">Drugs</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Forecasting%22">Forecasting</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Disease+incidence%22">Disease incidence</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Medical+care+costs%22">Medical care costs</searchLink>
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  Data: <searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Florida%22">Florida</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22New+York+%28State%29%22">New York (State)</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22California%22">California</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Illinois%22">Illinois</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Alabama%22">Alabama</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Wisconsin%22">Wisconsin</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Missouri%22">Missouri</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Mississippi%22">Mississippi</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Texas%22">Texas</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Georgia%22">Georgia</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22Louisiana%22">Louisiana</searchLink><br /><searchLink fieldCode="DE" term="%22United+States%22">United States</searchLink>
– Name: Abstract
  Label: Abstract
  Group: Ab
  Data: Objectives. To estimate the increase in HIV infections in 11 US states if Ryan White services are interrupted or ended. Methods. We applied a population-level model of HIV transmission to 11 states. We represented the proportion of people with HIV receiving Ryan White AIDS drug assistance, outpatient health services, or support services, and simulated a loss of suppression in each category if services permanently end or return after delays of 1.5 or 3.5 years. Results. Cessation of Ryan White services in 2025 was projected to result in 69 695 additional infections from 2025 to 2030 (95% credible interval [CrI] = 18 943, 123 628), 68% more (95% CrI = 18%, 118%) than if Ryan White were continued. Temporary interruptions of 1.5 and 3.5 years resulted in 26 951 (95% CrI = 7341, 47 534) and 53 594 (95% CrI = 14 645, 94 860) additional infections, respectively. Excess infections varied across states, from a 45% increase in Texas to 126% in Missouri. Conclusions. Projected increases in HIV infections because of disruptions of Ryan White services threaten the progress made in curtailing the US HIV epidemic, illustrating the critical role Ryan White plays in preventing HIV transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
– Name: AbstractSuppliedCopyright
  Label:
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  Data: <i>Copyright of American Journal of Public Health is the property of American Public Health Association and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites without the copyright holder's express written permission. Additionally, content may not be used with any artificial intelligence tools or machine learning technologies. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract.</i> (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)
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RecordInfo BibRecord:
  BibEntity:
    Identifiers:
      – Type: doi
        Value: 10.2105/AJPH.2025.308409
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      – Code: eng
        Text: English
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        PageCount: 4
        StartPage: 732
    Subjects:
      – SubjectFull: Government aid laws
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: HIV infection transmission
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: HIV infection epidemiology
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Prevention of infectious disease transmission
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: HIV prevention
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      – SubjectFull: Health services accessibility
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      – SubjectFull: Patient compliance
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      – SubjectFull: Antiretroviral agents
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      – SubjectFull: Viral load
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      – SubjectFull: Research funding
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      – SubjectFull: United States. Dept. of Health & Human Services
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      – SubjectFull: HIV-positive persons
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      – SubjectFull: Outpatient medical care
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: HIV infections
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      – SubjectFull: Descriptive statistics
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      – SubjectFull: Population geography
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      – SubjectFull: Infectious disease transmission
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      – SubjectFull: Drugs
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      – SubjectFull: Florida
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      – SubjectFull: New York (State)
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: California
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Illinois
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Alabama
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Wisconsin
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Missouri
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Mississippi
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Texas
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Georgia
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: Louisiana
        Type: general
      – SubjectFull: United States
        Type: general
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      – TitleFull: Projected Increase in HIV Incidence in 11 States if Ryan White Ends: A Simulation Study.
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